comments and observations on Thailand's Political Unrest

April 15, 2009

It's all over. The reds surrendered - or as they are saying, they voluntarily dispersed, and calm has returned to Bangkok. We can now get on with our lives without the worry of ending up in the middle of a bunch of revolutionaries clashing with the police or military.

There will be plenty of doom and glom about Thailand's future, what will happen to the economy, how the tourism industry will be effected and of course, just what this all means for the common man. If I had not been through a coup d'état and plenty of other major disruptions already I would also be suggesting that the future is indeed grim - in fact I said that when the previous round of incidents and protests took place. But what experience tells me is that despite all of the problems Thailand has faced in recent years - and there have been many - the country has an uncanny knack of bouncing back. What's the bet that in a month or two it's business as usual? Sure, confidence has been dented, some people will never invest here and others will never visit, but for the most part I think it will be business as usually, until all this crap starts up again. And yes, it will, because at the end of the day the underlying problems remain. It's just a matter of time...

I don't think there is any reason to provide any more updates so I'll leave this page online for a few days and then take it down.

The Songkran period has been extended for two days until Friday although whether this means that the water mayhem will continue until then or not is unclear. Government departments will remain on holiday but banks, some private businesses and the stock exchange will resume on Thursday.

OK, so it's Songkran time. It's time to go out and enjoy this gentle Thai festival where passers by will have a sprinkling of scented water dropped on to their shoulder. Happy Songkran!

April 14, 2009

I went for a run this morning a bit before 9 AM and did not see anyone playing Songkran. Covering 7.5 km, initially past expensive serviced apartments and later through streets lined with low income housing, not one person was celebrating Songkran the traditional way. The Mrs. tried to explain it away by saying that Songkran is more popular in the countryside than here in Bangkok, which may be true, but it's still very strange to see it so quiet in the capital.

I saw very few smiles today, in fact very few people were out and about. The city felt almost ghostly quiet. I stood outside our condo and looked at an empty road. This main thoroughfare is jammed for many hours each and every day and even at 3 or 4 in the morning there is traffic. This morning there was nothing. I stood there for almost 60 seconds before a car came along which is really quite surreal.

Many bus routes have apparently been suspended as a direct result of the red shirts commandeering city buses and using them as battering rams and blockades. Some buses are running, others are not. My best guess would be that those buses which pass by areas where the red shirts are camped out, meaning around Government House, may not be running, but I did see buses in service around home so it would appear that only some routes have been suspended.

The usual knee jerk reactions from embassies have been issued stating that travel to Thailand should be avoided and sadly, many seem to have taken this advice on board with reports of large numbers of foreigners fleeing the country. I would suggest that Thailand remains safe for tourists although there is a chance that there could be interruptions to travel. In terms of foreigners getting caught up in this and becoming victims, I see that as extremely unlikely. You'd have to be an absolute fool to end up in the middle of it as the protests are confined to a few small areas. Yes, the protestors were in central areas over the past few days including Siam Square, Pratunam, Petchaburi Road, Phyathai Road and Victory Monument but those areas have all been secured and the mob are now camped out at Government House.

So, if you want Stickman's travel advice, here goes: If you're planning on going to the south - and by that I mean ANYWHERE south of Bangkok, things should be fine. The further south you go, the more "yellow" things get, meaning these red shirts are not tolerated. While Pattaya was targeted on Saturday, that was only because the ASEAN Summit was being held there and with that event cancelled, I would suggest there are no problems going there.

As far as Bangkok goes, if you're a regular visitor to the city, odds are you won't notice much different except for the fact that things are quieter than usual. If you have never been to Bangkok or are what could be described as the nervous type, then perhaps it is best to hold off visiting for a few days until, hopefully, things die down.

As far as Chiang Mai goes, I would caution against visiting at this point in time. I am not on the ground so do not know just what is happening but that is very much red country and for the next few days, perhaps a little longer, things might be unpredictable. Like I say, I am not there, so I cannot comment with any authority.

As far as the Isaan region goes, so few foreigners go there anyway so this paragraph is largely redundant. Isaan is firmly red territory but with that in mind, I don't think a foreign visitor would have any problems. There might be disruptions to travel but in terms of personal safety, I would not expect there to be clashes up there. Meetings and rallies may be held, but Isaan is very definitely foreigner-friendly and there is no need to be concerned about your personal safety.

I would recommend that wherever you happen to be, don't take the Western approach of debating the whole issue with the locals unless you know them well and you are certain that they are comfortable talk about and possibly debating the issue, Many simply aren't interested in hearing an opposing view. Massive numbers on both sides are very upset about what has happened and might not take kindly to you imposing your views on them! When it comes to politics in Thailand, I find it is best to keep your trap firmly shut. Locals seldom appreciate an outside view, especially if it is contrary to theirs!

All of this unrest is very much class warfare. I hate to say it but while it looks like this round of protests and violence will soon come to an end, the issue is far from resolved and unless something drastic happens, it will all kick off again before too long. And that is a real worry because the red shirts might just take the view that they did not do enough this time and so next time will have to up the ante...

I'll end today's update with couple of shots taken by a friend yesterday of some of the red mob on the move in downtown Bangkok.

April 13, 2009

Pictures of the demonstrations stemming from the political unrest being beamed around the world are causing massive damage to Thailand's already tarnished reputation. You don't need to be a cynic to say that whenever Thailand appears in the international media these days it seems to be, sadly, that it is for all the wrong reasons. What a terrible shame that is.

I am being bombarded with emails about just what is happening here on the ground so this is my findings after checking out downtown Bangkok around lunch time today.

I took a taxi to Siam Square when really I should have driven. The roads were very quiet. Today is the first official day of the Songkran holiday, when traditionally revelers engage in water battles city wide. The journey into the centre of town passed very little in the way of water fighting revelry. The usual sight of hordes of Thais at the roadside with drums of water was a sight I had to look hard to find. There are some people celebrating but the atmosphere is not the usual fun we expect at this time of year.

I saw not one pickup truck with revelers on the back with water guns. Not one. I am sure they are out there but they're not coming into the downtown area. The biggest holiday of the year, Songkran looks to be a rather somber affair this year.

Many of the pictures beamed around the world showed the red shirts seizing tanks at Siam Paragon, the upmarket shopping centre in the heart of Siam Square. Today Siam Square is dead with Paragon, Siam Centre and Siam Discovery all closed. Signs outside state that they are closed today. Security guards I spoke to said they would open tomorrow but really, can they be sure?

Up on the Siam skytrain station are a few soldiers. Not many, just a few. They were the only soldiers I saw anywhere in the area.

I made my way along to Mahboonkrong which was open but the number of shoppers as very low, perhaps half of the customers were foreigners. We managed to stop for a coffee and a chance to cool down in the air-conditioning but 15 minutes later and we were on our way, walking towards Central World to see what was happening there.

The first sign that Central World was also closed was that the skywalk, which runs from just east of Siam station / at the top of Henri Dunant Road, was closed. We walked the few hundred metres towards Central World and even at a distance could see that Central World was closed, barriers perched up all around it preventing anyone from getting in. There were a few security guards in attendance but I did not see any military nor evidence that they had been there. The day before they were there in serious numbers.

In fact I think I saw a total of only 4 or 5 soldiers in the entire area, all at the Siam station.

As we continued on, Gaysorn Plaza was closed and Amarin Tower, which is opposite had been open but signs erected outside said that it had closed at midday. There was a large number of police and security there and they appeared to have just come out of a meeting.

I would not be surprised if other shopping centres are closed to but I did not venture much further. Downtown Bangkok, at least the area from MBK to Central Chidlom is very, very quiet.

What is being shown on TV is obviously scary but I would suggest it is confined to a few small areas. As bullets have been fired and a number of protestors injured and some killed, that you avoid those areas completely. But for most people, there will be little disruption to your holiday or to your daily lives, at least at this point in time.

The feeling in the air is very different to the events of the 2006 coup. Soldiers have not secured nearly as much infrastructure as they did then and where I saw military at busy intersections both near home as well as in the downtown area, I did not see anything like that this time. If what we are seeing on TV is accurate, it would seem that the military is now set on breaking up the protestors. I sure hope a battalion or two is stationed at the airport as we know how easily that was taken in November 2008...

For the time being, I would suggest that Bangkok remains safe so long as you stay away from where the red shirts are, which seems to be predominantly major government buildings. The areas popular with foreigners such as Sukhumvit Road and Silom are both ok. Khao San Road is a bit closer to the heart of the action and with it being Songkran I have no plans to go out there and check it out.

If I make it out and about later today I will do an update otherwise I will go out tomorrow when the next update will come.

But I am not afraid to admit I have got very grave concerns about where this is all going, long term. The country is polarised and the resolve on each side is very strong. It really is hard to see a way out for there is nothing in the culture or education system that provides the skills to deal with this kind of divide, Thais being very non-confrontational. Dissolving parliament and holding a new election, the military taking over, Taksin returning, it doesn't matter which whatever scenario you run through your head, it becomes a cycle, and it all just starts again. It seems that the reds really are in for the long haul. They have a resolve that could see a lot of blood spilled...

We went out again late this afternoon for an evening meal, eager to get away from the TV which, admittedly, we had been glued to all day long. You know, as I said to the Mrs., if we had not been watching TV, listening to the radio or monitoring the Internet - yes, we had all three going for most of the afternoon, there is no way we would have known anything was going on. Bangkok was quiet, tranquil even. We saw a few more Songkran revelers and there was the usual number of hoons on zooming in and out of traffic on motorbikes but for the most part, Bangkok was typically quiet as it is at Songkran. Not as quiet as previous years, mind you - I reckon many people who would otherwise have left the city chose not to this year.

What is interesting is the increasingly angry reaction from Bangkokians. When I say Bangkokians, I mean not just residents but specifically those born here and those with a business. I spoke with a number of the Mrs.' friends, and also got chatting with some other diners in the restaurant - where the only thing on everyone's lips was the protests - and there was nothing but fury against the red shirts. I would suggest that if this lasts much longer there might just be a backlash. More and more Bangkok residents are furious and the derogatory comments have started with suggestions that those involved really do not understand the situation and have been brainwashed by a certain individual with a square face.

A friend went to Soi Cowboy which can be a fun place to join in the Songkran festivities only to find a bunch of red shirts at Cowboy engaged in a street fight with fellow Thais! Needless to say he high-tailed it out of there back to the safety of his condo!

And who can blame the Bangkokians for their absolute fury and disgust at what has happened? Take a look at Khao San Road, the backpackers' haven and ground zero for Songkran festival revelry and water fights. Anyone who wishes to join the revelers out there can forget it! Many of the roads around and leading to Khao San have been closed. Thai TV showed pictures that business in the backpacker ghetto has been smashed with 50% of those staying there checking out and apparently heading for neighbouring countries or the airport to fly home! Analysts have suggested the financial hit Thailand is going to take over this is going to be massive - 200,000,000,000 baht. No, I didn't get liberal with zeroes. 200 billion baht or in real money, about 6 billion US dollars!

As we were sitting in that riverside restaurant, I don't know if it was a random breeze, but for a moment I felt not just a chill, but really quite cold. I looked out towards the Kassikornbank head office and all I could see was a tranquil, peaceful scene, yet I knew that not just a few kilometres away all hell was breaking loose as this country is being torn apart by protestors. Is Civil War a possibility? You never know. You just never know...